LSU-Arkansas preview
There are just a few games remaining in Ethan Pocic’s LSU career.
The Tigers have three regular-season contests remaining – the first against Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday (6 p.m. Central/ESPN).
Last week’s 10-0 loss to Alabama eliminated LSU from the Southeastern Conference Western Division race. The Tigers must win out against Arkansas, Florida and Texas A&M to avoid a fourth straight season with at least three league losses.
LSU has fared poorly the last two years against Arkansas after losing games to Alabama. Two seasons ago, the Tigers were shut out 17-0 in Fayetteville. Last November, LSU fell behind by three touchdowns in a 31-14 loss in Tiger Stadium.
“I am not sure what happened last year against Arkansas,” Pocic said. “I thought we had good practices for them. I’ll be fired up this week. We have three SEC games in a row left. It’s starting to get cold – football weather. We still have a lot to play for and coach (Ed) O(rgeron) has a lot to coach for.”
LSU’s 31-14 loss to the Hogs last year set in motion the attempt to replace coach Les Miles with Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher. That plan was ended by then Louisiana Governor-Elect John Bel Edwards. Miles was fired after the Tigers split their first four games in 2016.
Under Orgeron, LSU won convincingly against Missouri, Southern Mississippi and Ole Miss before playing well in the setback against Alabama. Orgeron has his last three opportunities to show the LSU administration that he deserves to be the permanent head coach.
In all likelihood, Orgeron must guide the Tigers to three consecutive victories in a 13-day span to be a serious candidate for the head coaching position. The next couple of weeks will be the most significant of Orgeron’s career. One defeat could end his chances of keeping his dream job.
SEVEN QUICK NOTES ABOUT LSU
1. The winner of the LSU-Arkansas game gets The Boot, a 24-karat gold trophy in the shape of the states of Arkansas and Louisiana. Since this trophy came into existence, the Tigers have 12 victories and the Razorbacks have eight. LSU has lost the past two games to the Hogs. The Tigers have never dropped three straight games to Arkansas since it joined the SEC in 1992.
2. If LSU loses to the Razorbacks, it would be the Tigers’ 13th SEC defeat during the past four seasons. The last time LSU lost as many as 13 conference games over a four-year span occurred from 1999-2002. In that stretch, the Tigers lost 16 SEC games. LSU went 1-7 in 1999, which was Gerry DiNardo’s final season as coach. Each of Nick Saban’s first three Tigers teams had a 5-3 league mark.
3. LSU will attempt to end a four-game regular-season losing streak away from Tiger Stadium. The Tigers lost at Alabama and Ole Miss last November. This season, LSU lost to Wisconsin at Green Bay and at Auburn. The Tigers last regular-season victory away from home came at Syracuse 14 months ago. This regular-season losing streak away from Tiger Stadium is LSU’s longest since it dropped ten in a row from 1998-2000.
4. Leonard Fournette needs just an average finish to pass Charles Alexander and Dalton Hilliard on LSU’s all-time rushing list. Fournette is 343 yards behind Alexander and 358 yards behind Hilliard. If the Tigers play in a bowl game, Fournette would need to average only 90 yards to move into second place behind Kevin Faulk, who closed his career with 4,557 rushing yards. Fournette has 3,692 yards heading into the Arkansas game.
5. Linebacker Kendell Beckwith registered a career-best 16 tackles against Alabama to run his total for the season to 85. Beckwith is now the top tackler in the SEC with 10.6 tackles per contest. Of his 85 tackles, six have been behind the line of scrimmage. Beckwith’s senior teammate Duke Riley is second on the team in tackles with 68.
6. Malachi Dupre and Fournette are considered LSU’s top playmakers on offense. However, both Dupre and Fournette have other players at their positions who have accounted for more 20-plus yard gains this season. Only two of Dupre’s receptions have gained at least 20 yards. DJ Chark leads all Tigers receivers with five gains of at least 20 yards. Fournette has seven carries of at least 20 yards. Derrius Guice has gained at least 20 yards on 11 of his rushing attempts.
7. Donnie Alexander could be following in the footsteps of linebackers Deion Jones and Riley. Both Jones and Riley were special teams standouts in their first three years at LSU. Then, Jones and Riley performed quite well as a starter in their senior campaigns. Alexander is the top tackler on Tigers special teams this season with 14 stops. Alexander is projected to be a starter at inside linebacker as a senior in 2017.
SEVEN QUICK NOTES ABOUT ARKANSAS
1. Arkansas will be playing host to LSU in Fayetteville for just the fourth time in the history of the series. The Razorbacks have won two of the three previous games – 30-6 in 1992 and 17-0 in 2014. The Tigers’ lone victory in Fayetteville took place in 2012 (20-13).
2. Close games have been kind to the Hogs this season. Arkansas has won all three of its games decided by seven points or less – 21-20 against Louisiana Tech, 41-38 against TCU in double overtime and 34-30 against Ole Miss. All of the Razorbacks’ other six games have been decided by at least 19 points. Arkansas has a 3-3 record in those contests.
3. The Hogs have been on a hot streak since the middle of last season. Arkansas has won 12 of its last 16 games. Alabama is the only SEC team with more victories in that span. By comparison, LSU has won 10 of its past 16 games.
4. Austin Allen is tied for first in touchdown passes among SEC quarterbacks with 19. He leads the SEC in red-zone scoring passes with 15. Allen has thrown at least two touchdown passes in seven of Arkansas’ nine games in 2016.
5. Wide receiver Drew Morgan has a SEC-high 30 first-down receptions. He is fourth in the conference in catches with 48. Morgan is the fifth Razorbacks receiver since 1997 to catch at least 40 passes in the first eight games of a season. Morgan has caught a pass in 23 consecutive games.
6. Rawleigh Williams is the most used running back in the SEC. Williams has a conference-high 179 rushing attempts. He is second in the SEC in rushing yards with 955 and tied for second in 100-yard rushing games with five.
7. Defensive end Deatrich Wise has 16½ career sacks – the sixth most among active SEC players. In his last 14 games, Wise has 10½ sacks and 12 tackles-for-loss. He had three sacks and 5½ tackles-for-loss in his previous 14 games. Wise has been a part of a sack in five of the Razorbacks’ nine games this season. He is tenth on the school’s all-time sack list.
PREDICTION
Mental frame of mind will probably determine the outcome of LSU’s game against Arkansas. As quarterback Danny Etling said, ‘we can’t let one team beat us twice.’ The Tigers cannot afford a mental letdown when facing a physical Razorbacks team on what is going to be a chilly night in Fayetteville. LSU should have some success running the football. But, the Arkansas defense has played inspired football in recent seasons against the Tigers. All of the tangibles indicate that LSU rebounds quite well against the Hogs. However, the Tigers are going to be facing an Arkansas team which is very confident after a 31-10 whipping of Florida.
Arkansas 21, LSU 17
TEAM STATS COMPARISON
LSU points per game: 26.1
Arkansas opponents’ points per game: 29.0
LSU rushing yards per game: 214.0
Arkansas opponents’ rushing yards per game: 198.4
LSU passing yards per game: 172.4
Arkansas opponents’ passing yards per game: 208.8
LSU total yards per game: 386.4
Arkansas opponents’ total yards per game: 407.2
LSU passing completion percentage: 57.3
Arkansas opponents’ pass completion percentage: 56.7
LSU sacks allowed per game: 1.9
Arkansas sacks per game: 2.0
Arkansas points per game: 30.9
LSU opponents’ points per game: 14.4
Arkansas rushing yards per game: 167.3
LSU opponents’ rushing yards per game: 118.1
Arkansas passing yards per game: 254.9
LSU opponents’ passing yards per game: 196.9
Arkansas total yards per game: 422.2
LSU opponents’ total yards per game: 315.0
Arkansas passing completion percentage: 61.3
LSU opponents’ pass completion percentage: 57.8
Arkansas sacks allowed per game: 1.9
LSU sacks per game: 2.4
LSU turnover margin: 0
Arkansas turnover margin: 0
INDIVIDUAL STAT LEADERS
Rushing
LSU: Leonard Fournette – 100 carries, 705 yards, 5 touchdowns
Arkansas: Rawleigh Williams – 179 carries, 955 yards, 7 touchdowns
Passing
LSU: Danny Etling – 171 attempts, 100 completions, 59 percent, 1,221 yards, 7 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
Arkansas: Austin Allen – 275 attempts, 170 completions, 61 percent, 2,294 yards, 19 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
Receiving
LSU: Malachi Dupre – 26 catches, 305 yards, 2 touchdowns
Arkansas: Drew Morgan – 48 catches, 515 yards, 3 touchdowns
Tackles
LSU: Kendell Beckwith – 85
Arkansas: Brooks Ellis (LB) – 62
Tackles-for-loss
LSU: Arden Key – 9½
Arkansas: Jeremiah Ledbetter (DT), Deatrich Wise (DE) – 5
Sacks
LSU: Arden Key – 8
Arkansas: Jeremiah Ledbetter (DT) – 4
Quarterback-hurries
LSU: Arden Key – 8
Arkansas: Deatrich Wise (DE) – 7
Interceptions
LSU: Donte Jackson, Tre’Davious White – 2
Arkansas: Josh Liddell (S), Henre Toliver (CB) – 2
Pass breakups
LSU: Donte Jackson – 6
Arkansas: Ryan Pulley (CB) – 10
Punting
LSU: Josh Growden – 40 punts, 42.5-yard average
Arkansas: Toby Baker – 40 punts, 44.8-yard average
Kicking
LSU: Colby Delahoussaye – 5-of-8 FGs, 25-of-27 XPs
Arkansas: Cole Hedlund – 4-of-6 FGs; 22-of-22 XPs
Kickoff returns
LSU: Donte Jackson – 6 returns, 152 yards
Arkansas: Dominique Reed – 9 returns, 161 yards
Punt returns
LSU: Tre’Davious White: 17 returns, 150 yards, 1 touchdown
Arkansas: Jared Cornelius – 9 returns, 39 yards