LSU-Arkansas preview
Arkansas coach Bret Bielema is not saying whether senior Austin Allen or redshirt freshman Cole Kelley will start against LSU in Tiger Stadium on Saturday (11 a.m. Central/ESPN).
Allen has missed the last four games due to a knee injury he received in a loss at South Carolina. Allen, who has completed 56 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and four interceptions this season, has practiced without limitations this week.
Kelley, who played at Lafayette (La.) Teurlings Catholic High School, has led the Razorbacks to come-from-behind victories against Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina the past two games. For the year, Kelley has completed 60 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
No matter which player gets the nod at quarterback, the Hogs are going to throw the football against the LSU secondary. Arkansas is averaging 29 passes per game. Devwah Whaley and David Williams, the Razorbacks’ top two rushers, are averaging a combined 20 carries per game.
The Tigers held Alabama’s Jalen Hurts to less than a 50 percent completion rate last Saturday. However, the LSU secondary was victimized by some big completions by Hurts. Tigers coach Ed Orgeron said that the defensive backs did not do as well as expected in man coverage.
“We gave up a couple of third-down completions, long third-down passes,” redshirt freshman cornerback Greedy Williams said. “It was mainly our technique. (Secondary) coach (Corey) Raymond fussed about our technique.
“We have to be more locked in this week. We have to do our job on third-and-long. Defensive back is a tough position. You have to bounce back. This week, we have to have the mindset that we are not going to give up as many points as (Arkansas) has scored.”
The Razorbacks are averaging 30 points per game. Only TCU and Alabama have held the Hogs to fewer than 20 points. On three occasions this year, Arkansas has rushed and passed for 200 yards – tied for the second most in the Southeastern Conference.
Fast facts about LSU
1. Since Arkansas joined the SEC in 1992, the Tigers have won 15 of the 25 meetings. LSU has won nine of the 12 games played in Tiger Stadium. The Razorbacks’ three road victories in that stretch happened in 1993, 2007 and 2015. Arkansas has won two of the last three games. The last time the Hogs won three of four games against LSU occurred from 2007-10.
2. The Tigers defense has registered 30 sacks – the second highest total in the SEC. Texas A&M is No. 1 in the conference with 32 sacks. In its last four games, LSU has allowed a total of 11 fourth-quarter points – eight by Ole Miss and three by Alabama.
3. The 11 a.m. kickoff time is the earliest for a game in Tiger Stadium in six years. LSU defeated Kentucky 35-7 in an 11 a.m. start in 2011. The Tigers have won 14 of their last 15 home day games. The one defeat came against Florida last season.
4. LSU tight ends and H-Backs have caught 27 passes for 268 yards and five touchdowns in the first nine games. Tight end Foster Moreau has made 15 receptions for 181 yards and a team-high three touchdowns. H-Back John David Moore has caught six passes for 51 yards and one touchdown. True freshman H-Back Tory Carter has three receptions for 14 yards and a touchdown. Tight ends Jamal Pettigrew and Jacory Washington and H-Back David Ducre each has one catch.
5. Greedy Williams has 12 passes defensed this year – three interceptions and nine pass breakups. Alabama’s Levi Wallace is the only SEC player with more passes defensed than Williams. Wallace has 13 passes defensed – three interceptions and ten pass breakups. Only Texas A&M’s Armani Watts has more interceptions than Williams. Watts has intercepted four passes.
6. Derrius Guice needs to average only 64 yards over the last four games to move ahead of Harvey Williams on LSU’s all-time rushing lost. Williams has the fifth most rushing yards among Tigers backs with 2,860 yards. Arden Key is tied with Gabe Northern for the third most sacks in LSU history. Key, who has 21 sacks, trails Ron Sancho by two sacks.
Fast facts about Arkansas
1. The Razorbacks have won their last two games by one point – 38-37 against Ole Miss and 39-38 against Coastal Carolina. Arkansas has been involved in just one other one-possession game this season – losing to Texas A&M 50-43 in overtime.
2. The Hogs are No. 2 in the SEC and No. 15 among FBS schools in red-zone touchdown percentage. Arkansas has scored a touchdown on 74 percent of its red-zone possessions. In their last seven games, the Razorbacks have scored touchdowns on 19 of their 24 red-zone possessions.
3. In his fifth season at Fayetteville, coach Bret Bielema has just one winning SEC record. The Hogs went 5-3 in 2015. Arkansas has an 11-26 record against SEC teams under Bielema. The Razorbacks must win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible. Arkansas’ next two games are against Mississippi State and Missouri. A three-game season-ending losing streak could cost Bielema his job.
4. Kelley is just the fifth Arkansas quarterback to have three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in a game since the Hogs joined the SEC in 1992. Kelley threw three scoring passes and ran for a touchdown two weeks ago at Ole Miss. The other Razorbacks quarterbacks who accomplished this feat are Clint Stoner (against SMU in 1998), Matt Jones (against Kentucky in 2003), Ryan Mallett (against UL-Monroe and UTEP in 2010) and Austin Allen (against TCU in 2016).
5. Allen, who may return to the lineup, has thrown a touchdown pass in ten straight games and in 17 of his 18 career starts. Allen is one of 12 Arkansas quarterbacks to throw for more than 4,000 yards. In his career, Allen has completed 60 percent of his passes for 4,468 yards and 34 touchdowns with 20 interceptions. Only six Razorbacks quarterback have thrown more touchdown passes than Allen.
6. Linebackers De’Jon Harris (81) and Dre Greenlaw (73) have combined for 154 tackles this season. Harris and Greenlaw are tied with Texas A&M’s Watts and Tyrel Dodson as the SEC’s top tackling duo. Harris has five double-digit tackle games, while Greenlaw has four games with at least ten tackles.
PREDICTION
LSU’s emotional level is the most important aspect of this meeting with the Razorbacks. If the Tigers display a sense of urgency, they should have few problems against Arkansas. LSU can run the ball, while the Hogs are not proficient at stopping the run. This game could resemble the Tigers’ outing at Ole Miss last month. LSU will not have a mental letdown after the loss to Alabama.
Score: LSU 37, Arkansas 16
Here are the statistical comparisons between LSU and Arkansas.
LSU points per game: 25.4
Arkansas points allowed per game: 36.1
LSU rushing yards per game: 209.0
Arkansas rushing yards allowed per game: 190.2
LSU passing yards per game: 196.3
Arkansas passing yards allowed per game: 232.0
LSU pass completion rate: 58 percent
Arkansas pass completion rate allowed: 59 percent
LSU total yards per game: 405.3
Arkansas total yards allowed per game: 422.2
LSU turnovers per game: 0.8
Arkansas turnovers forced per game: 1.4
LSU sacks allowed per game: 2.3
Arkansas sacks per game: 1.3
LSU third-down conversion rate: 38 percent
Arkansas third-down conversion rate allowed: 46 percent
Arkansas points per game: 29.9
LSU points allowed per game: 20.4
Arkansas rushing yards per game: 182.7
LSU rushing yards allowed per game: 142.4
Arkansas passing yards per game: 205.8
LSU passing yards allowed per game: 174.6
Arkansas pass completion rate: 58 percent
LSU pass completion rate allowed: 53 percent
Arkansas total yards per game: 388.4
LSU total yards allowed per game: 317.0
Arkansas turnovers per game: 1.7
LSU turnovers forced per game: 1.0
Arkansas sacks allowed per game: 3.1
LSU sacks per game: 3.3
Arkansas third-down conversion rate: 44 percent
LSU third-down conversion rate allowed: 35 percent
Here are the individual statistical leaders for LSU and Arkansas.
Rushing
LSU: Derrius Guice – 143 carries, 782 yards, 6 touchdowns
Arkansas: Devwah Whaley – 92 carries, 428 yards, 4 touchdowns
Passing
LSU: Danny Etling: 181 attempts, 105 completions, 58 percent, 1,589 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
Arkansas: Cole Kelley: 141 attempts, 84 completions, 60 percent, 1,002 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
Receiving
LSU: DJ Chark: 25 catches, 588 yards
Arkansas: Jonathan Nance: 33 catches, 497 yards, 5 touchdowns
Tackles
LSU: Devin White – 89
Arkansas: De’Jon Harris – 81
Tackles-for-loss
LSU: Devin White – 8
Arkansas: De’Jon Harris – 7
Sacks
LSU: Greg Gilmore, Christian LaCouture – 5½
Arkansas: Dwayne Eugene, De’Jon Harris – 2½
Quarterback-hurries
LSU: Arden Key – 4
Arkansas: Randy Ramsey – 4
Interceptions
LSU: Greedy Williams – 3
Arkansas: Kevin Richardson – 3
Pass breakups
LSU: Greedy Williams – 9
Arkansas: Henre Toliver – 8
Return yardage
LSU: Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 10 kickoff returns, 209 yards
Arkansas: De’Vion Warren – 21 kickoff returns, 571 yards, 1 touchdown
Punting
LSU: Zach Von Rosenberg – 24 punts, 42.2-yard average
Arkansas: Blake Johnson – 41 punts, 39.5-yard average
Kick-scoring
LSU: Connor Culp – 9-of-10 on field goals, 14-of-14 on extra points
Arkansas: Connor Limpert – 6-of-7 on field goals, 23-of-24 on extra points