Orgeron’s goal for 2017 season
The 2016 college football season ended Monday with an upset when Clemson rallied for a 35-31 victory against Alabama in the national championship game.
Clemson and Alabama split two one-possession games for the national title the last two seasons. Undoubtedly, the Tigers and the Tide have been the two best teams in the country in 2015-16.
Now, what about those other Tigers – the ones from LSU.
The recently-completed season must go down as a disappointing one. Rated a top-five team in August, LSU lost four games. An impressive bowl game beat-down of Louisville boosted the Tigers to the No. 13 spot in the final Associated Press standings.
It was not easy to be a LSU football player in 2016. Coach Les Miles was fired after the Tigers split their first four games – losing to Wisconsin and Auburn by a combined seven points. Miles needed to get LSU into a New Year’s Six bowl game to merit a contract extension.
The LSU administration thought the football team was trending downward after the two September defeats, so Miles was fired. Defensive line coach Ed Orgeron was named interim coach. Very few people thought in late September that Orgeron would end up being the permanent coach.
But, that’s how things played out.
Under Orgeron, the Tigers won six of eight games – the losses coming at home to Alabama (10-0) and Florida (16-10). Ironically, LSU could have reached a New Year’s Six bowl – the Sugar Bowl – by beating Florida. However, the Tigers delivered their worst performance under Orgeron against the Gators.
Orgeron is taking over a LSU program which has taken a step back since last winning a title – the 2011 Southeastern Conference crown. The Tigers are a good, but not an elite, program. In the past five years, LSU finished 14th (2012), 14th (2013), unranked (2014), 16th (2015) and 13th (2016) in the AP polls.
In the previous 11 seasons, the Tigers finished in the AP top-ten seven times – No. 1 in 2007, No. 2 in 2003, No. 2 in 2011, No. 3 in 2006, No. 6 in 2005, No. 7 in 2001, No. 8 in 2010. The 2003 team was the BCS national champion. Those numbers reflect the body of work of an elite program.
Alabama is the standard-bearer in the Southeastern Conference. Among Western Division teams, LSU has the second-best league record in these last five years at 25-15. However, in none of those years, did the Tigers finish by themselves in second place in the SEC West.
LSU finished tied for second with Auburn in 2016 and tied for second with Texas A&M in 2012. LSU ended up third in 2013, tied for third with Arkansas in 2015 and tied for fourth with Auburn in 2014. The Tigers have lost more than two SEC games every year since 2012.
With the structure of the college football playoff system, a two-loss SEC team is virtually assured of being in a New Year’s Six bowl game. Unfortunately, LSU has lost at least three league games since the CFP was initiated in 2014. A third SEC setback against Florida kept the Tigers out of the Sugar Bowl.
So, it’s very apparent what Orgeron should attempt to produce very quickly in his tenure. Put on the field a LSU team which can qualify for a New Year’s Six bowl game. It is not toppling Alabama. First, just be the second-best team in the Southeastern Conference.
That task is not that great. Florida was the only team other than Alabama to lose fewer than three SEC games this season. LSU would have swapped places with the Gators if it would have won the head-to-head matchup.
The Tigers will lose many talented players from their 2016 roster, particularly on defense. Still, no other SEC team (excluding Alabama) is in significantly better shape than LSU heading into the 2017 campaign.
Therefore, the realistic goal is set for Orgeron in his first season as LSU coach – a two-loss SEC record. Sweep the non-conference schedule and a 10-2 record should put the Tigers in a New Year’s Six bowl game. Understand that’s not the expectation. That’s the desired result.
Here are the SEC teams with fewer than three conference losses from 2012-16.
ALABAMA (5)
7-1 in 2012
7-1 in 2013
7-1 in 2014
7-1 in 2015
8-0 in 2016
FLORIDA (3)
7-1 in 2012
7-1 in 2015
6-2 in 2016
GEORGIA (2)
7-1 in 2012
6-2 in 2014
SOUTH CAROLINA (2)
6-2 in 2012
6-2 in 2013
MISSOURI (2)
7-1 in 2013
7-1 in 2014
AUBURN (1)
7-1 in 2013
LSU (1)
6-2 in 2012
OLE MISS (1)
6-2 in 2015
MISSISSIPPI STATE (1)
6-2 in 2014
TEXAS A&M (1)
6-2 in 2012
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