Bad Buddy injury extends Mad Dog lead entering SEC Week 4 picks

My near-perfect week of 10-1 compared to Buddy’s 8-3 gives me a three-game lead (32-3 to 29-6) heading into SEC picks week 4. I also was 6-5 against the spread to go 19-16 on the season.

Since Buddy had some outrageous misses last week, raising his left leg to pick visiting teams Arkansas State and Colorado State over home teams Georgia and Arkansas, I wondered if he had lost his instinctive sense of predicting.

“Nope, I’m injured,” he said.

“Injured? I asked.

“I’m old, you know my arthritis flares up,” Buddy said. “The day I was predicting last week, my right hind leg only had so many lifts in it because the arthritis made it too painful.

“So, I had to bail on three home teams and go with the visitors raising my left hind leg. It worked out for me when Kansas State won at Mississippi State. The other two games, not so much.

“This week, both hind legs feel great. I have no excuses. Prepare to lose, Mad Dog.”

Challenge accepted Buddy. Here’s the SEC Week 4 picks:

No. 4 LSU (3-0, 0-0 SEC West) at Vanderbilt (0-2, 0-1 SEC East), 11 a.m., Nashville (SEC Network) Betting line: LSU by 23½

Don’t be fooled by Georgia’s mere 24-point victory margin in its 30-6 season opening win at Vanderbilt. After taking 21-3 halftime lead with almost perfect offensive balance (12 rushes, 11 passes), the Bulldogs inexplicably took their foot off the gas in the third quarter when 15 of their 16 plays were runs. Note to Commodores, owners of the 126th worst pass defense (322.5 yards allowed per game) among 130 FBS teams: LSU isn’t going to ease off the pedal one bit. If anything, the Tigers and their 55 points per game offense keep firing passes until the final gun. It’s not about embarrassing an opponent. It’s about developing a mentality that screams Tigers’ coach Ed Orgeron believes you can never score enough points in today’s modern football of spread option passing attacks. LSU’s charge against Vanderbilt is to take a large leap of improvement in pass defense, both in pass rush and secondary coverage. Also, all four Tigers’ running backs need snaps to develop depth behind starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

My prediction: Burrow’s Bomb Squad 54, Comicaldores 9 Buddy: LSU

Southern Miss (2-1) at No. 2 Alabama (3-0, 1-0 SEC West), 11 a.m., Tuscaloosa (ESPN2) Betting line: Alabama by 39

Like LSU, which has a defense ranked No. 6 in the SEC in total defense, Alabama has a virtually unstoppable offense that scores so much (50.3 points per game, second in the league behind LSU) it masks its defensive deficiencies. Returning starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is off to another sizzling start for the second straight year with 12 to 0 touchdown passes to interceptions ratio. Southern Miss simply has no who can guard Alabama receiving playmakers Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith. Southern Miss junior QB Jack Abraham has thrown for almost 1,000 yards after three games with a 71.1 completion percentage. USM is hoping to get to the second half vs. the Crimson Tide within striking distance. That’s a challenge since Alabama has outscored opponents 41-3 in the second quarter and 76-13 in the first half.

My prediction: Saban Nation 48, University of Biloxi at Hattiesburg 17 Buddy: Alabama

No. 7 Notre Dame (2-0) at No. 3 Georgia (3-0 1-0 SEC East), 7 p.m., Athens (CBS) Point spread: Georgia by 14

Notre Dame is venturing into the SEC for a road game for the first time since it lost at Tennessee in 2004. This is the return matchup of a home-and-home series after Georgia won at Notre Dame 20-19 two years ago. The Bulldogs as a two-TD favorite might be stunning to the average fan, but it may be accurate because Georgia is ranked No. 9 in total defense nationally (243 ypg) and Notre Dame is 68th (373 ypg). Notre Dame hasn’t seen a defense with Georgia’s quickness. The only reason the Irish might keep this game competitive is if Bulldogs’ coach Kirby Smart leans heavily towards a ball-control, power-rushing offense rather than staying aggressive.

My prediction: Battling Bullpuppies 34, Leapin’ Leprechauns 20 Buddy: Georgia

No. 8 Auburn (3-0, 0-0 SEC West) at No. 17 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-0 SEC West), 2:30 p.m., College Station (CBS) Betting line: Texas A&M by 4

A&M is probably favored on the basis of two things. The Aggies are playing at home and Saturday’s game marks the first SEC road game in an extremely hostile environment for Auburn true freshman starting quarterback Bo Nix. It’s the type of game the road team can win if it has a dominant running game and Auburn certainly has that averaging 281.7 yards. A&M’s defensive game plan is to use its SEC third-ranked rushing defense to stop Auburn and force the Tigers to rely on Nix and the least productive passing offense (183.3 yards per game) in the SEC.

My prediction: Jimbo Package 28, Au-burned 24

Buddy: Auburn

Tennessee (1-2, 0-0 SEC East) at No. 9 Florida (3-0, 1-0 SEC East), 11 a.m. (ESPN) Betting line: Florida by 14

The Gators lost starting quarterback Feleipe Franks with a season-ending fractured ankle sustained in last Saturday’s win over Kentucky. Franks had been so inconsistent this season (five TDs, three interceptions) that there’s a segment of Florida’s fans who think Franks’ backup Kyle Trask is an upgrade at the position. He took over Florida’s offense to start the fourth quarter and led a comeback victory at Kentucky after Franks got hurt. Trask finished the game 9-of-13 for 126 yards and one TD led the Gators to 222 yards of total offense and 19 points in the fourth quarter. The battlefield promotion may not be enough for Florida to win the East Division over Georgia, but it’s good enough to beat Tennessee.

My prediction: Gainesville Reptiles 34, Goober Says Hey 17 Buddy: Tennessee

Elsewhere:

Kentucky (2-1, 0-1 SEC East) at Mississippi State (2-1, 0-0 SEC West), 3 p.m., Starkville (SEC Network) Betting line: Mississippi State by 6½

My prediction: Lexington Felines 35, Starkvegas Bulldoggies 24 Buddy: Kentucky

South Carolina (1-2, 0-1 SEC East) at Missouri (2-1, 0-0 SEC East), 3 p.m. (SEC Network Alternate) Betting line: Missouri by 9½

My prediction: Mizzou-rah 31, South Carolina 21 Buddy: Missouri

Cal (3-0) at Ole Miss (2-1, 0-0 SEC West), 11 a.m., Oxford (ESPNU) Betting line: Ole Miss by 2

My prediction: California Dreamin’ 28, Oxford Screamin’ 21 Buddy: Ole Miss

San Jose State (1-1) at Arkansas (2-1, 0-1 SEC West), 6:30 p.m., Fayetteville (SEC Network) Betting line: Arkansas by 21

My prediction: Porkers 48, Tokers 24 Buddy: San Jose State