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Published Jan 24, 2024
Game Preview: LSU WBB vs South Carolina
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Luke Hubbard  •  Death Valley Insider
Analyst
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@clukehubbard

This Thursday night, the No. 9 LSU Tigers will host the No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks in a top-10 showdown. This has been one of the most anticipated matchups of the season since the schedule was released months ago.

The last time these two teams met, South Carolina blew the Tigers out of the water in Columbia. LSU was ranked third and SC was ranked first, but from the opening tip, that game was never close.

On Thursday, the Tigers will try to get their revenge on Dawn Staley's Gamecocks.

The Matchup

No. 9 LSU at No. 1 South Carolina

Time: Thursday, January 25th at 7pm CT

Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center

TV: ESPN

Radio: Baton Rouge: 107.3, New Orleans: 92.9/1350

When LSU has the ball

When the Tigers have the ball, look for a very balanced offensive attack from their starters. Before the Sa'Myah Smith injury, the Tigers had six players averaging double digits, but since then, that number has been cut to five. Outside of their starting rotation, only one player averages more than five points per game (Aalyah Del Rosario), so expect the majority of their work to come from the starting five.

LSU's offense ranks first in the nation in terms of PPG. The Tigers average 91.7 points per game, but they'll face a SC defense that ranks fifth in the country, allowing 52.1 points per game. LSU played the No. 1 scoring defense earlier this year (Texas A&M at the time), and still dropped 87 points, so we'll see if the offense can replicate that performance against another top defensive team.

One area the Tigers struggle on offense is turnovers. They give the ball up nearly 16 times per game and they're going up against a SC team that forces 16.6 turnovers a game. Ball security is going to be one of the main focuses in this one, because you can ill afford to give SC extra possessions.

If there's one area of the SC defense the Tigers can really expose, it's their inability to defend the glass. The Gamecocks are towards the bottom of the nation in offensive rebounds allowed per game (13.0) while LSU is the 5th best team at pulling in offensive rebounds with 17.3 per game. Second chance points can be the difference maker in this game. Angel Reese and Annesah Morrow will have to be active on the offensive glass and make sure they score points when they get extra possessions.

When South Carolina has the ball

While the Gamecocks boast a very good defense, they have an even better offense. Led by Kamilla Cardoso, the Gamecocks score an average of 90.8 PPG, which is fourth in the nation. On the flip side, the Tigers defense hasn't been amazing, giving up 61.5 PPG which ranks 113th in the country.

There's no doubt that this SC offense is the best one they've faced all season. The next best offense they've faced in terms of PPG was Colorado...and I think we all know how that game ended.

The Gamecocks have a more balanced offensive attack than LSU. They have nine players that average 5+ points per game this season with all of their starters averaging double digits.

Their center, Kamilla Cardoso, is their leading scorer. She'll be matched up with Angel Reese or Annesah Morrow all night, so she'll have her work cut out for her, but she's one of the best centers in the game. The painted area will be a big deciding factor in this game, because if she can find ways to beat Reese and Morrow down low, it's going to be next to impossible to stop her.

The main place SC can and will beat you is on from behind the arc. They shoot an average of 16.4 three's per game and knock them down at a 44.4% clip, which is by far the best in the country. However, the Tigers do a pretty good job defending the three ball, allowing opponents to hit just 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc. I could see three point shooting being an X-factor in this game. If the Gamecocks get hot early, it's probably going to be a long night for LSU, but if they can lock them up on the perimeter, I'd give the Tigers a good shot at pulling the upset.

Players to watch

Angel Reese: Obviously, Angel Reese is a player to watch on Thursday. She's the Tigers leading scorer and will likely be matched up with Cordoso for most of the night. Reese is going to need one of her best games as a Tiger if they want to pull off the upset.

Mikaylah Williams: Williams is another player to watch in this game. Coming off a 21 point outing against Arkansas, Williams is finding her footing in SEC play. She went into a tiny slump over a three game span before the Arkansas game, but she'll need to be on her A game as a scorer on Thursday.

Te-Hina Paopaop: The Gamecocks second leading scorer could be the X-factor in this game. Paopao shoots the three ball five times a game and knocks down 55.8% of her threes. That's an unreal percentage with her volume of shots. She's only shot under 50% from deep three times this season, but if LSU wants to win, they need to limit her efficiency from three.

The bottom line

The bottom line is the Tigers are going to have their hands full in this one. Any time you play the No. 1 team in the nation, it's going to be a dog fight. Luckily for them, this time the games in the PMAC in front of 12,000+ rowdy Tiger fans.

If the Tigers want to win this one, they'll need to hit the offensive boards hard and limit the Gamecocks three point efficiency. If they can do those two things, I think they have a good chance to pull off the upset.

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