Published Oct 18, 2023
Heisman check-in: How Jayden Daniels fares against other Heisman favorites
Luke Hubbard  •  Death Valley Insider
Analyst
Twitter
@clukehubbard

We are already over half way through the college football regular season, and we're beginning to see some clear favorites appear for the Heisman trophy.

Before this weekends games, Michael Penix Jr., Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel were the favorites to win it, but after Caleb Williams' loss to Notre Dame and Michael Penix's big win over Oregon, the odds have shifted quite a bit.

As it stands right now, FanDuel has Michael Penix Jr. (-140) as the heavy favorite followed by Dillon Gabriel (+900), J.J. McCarthy (+1200) and Jayden Daniels (+1200).

The Heisman is usually awarded to the quarterback of the best team, and as it stands right now, all three of the QBs in front of Daniels are undefeated, and both Penix and Gabriel have marquee wins that could be big in deciding who takes home the trophy.

Luckily for the LSU quarterback, there have been some Heisman winners in recent years that have won with 2+ losses. Take last year for example, Caleb Williams and the Trojans lost their two biggest games of the season, both to Utah in the regular season and in the Pac-12 championship. Another recent example of this was Lamar Jackson in 2016. He won the Heisman with four losses, but was obviously the most electric player in the country.

Let's take a look at the stats from recent Heisman winners with 2+ losses and compare them to what Daniels is on track for by the end of the regular season.

Heisman Winners with 2+ Losses
StatsLamar JacksonJohnny MazielCaleb WilliamsJayden Daniels (Proj)

Passing Yards

3,390

3,419

3,712

3,934

Rushing Yards

1,538

1,181

351

883

Total TDs

51

43

44

45

INT's

9

8

3

4

Win/Loss

9-4

11-2

11-2

N/A

I'd say those numbers matchup quite nicely with how some of the other 2+ loss Heisman winners. While his stats still may be just as good as some of the other 2+ loss Heismans, all that matters is how he stacks up against the field this year, so here's how Daniels' stats matchup with the other favorites for this years Heisman through seven weeks.

Heisman Favorites Stats
StatJayden DanielsJ.J. McCarthyDillon GabrielMichael Penix Jr.

Passing Yards

2,294

1,512

1,878

2,301

Rushing Yards

515

160

208

4

Total TDs

26

17

21

20

INTs

3

3

2

3

Win/Loss

5-2

7-0

6-0

6-0

In my opinion, wins and losses shouldn't be weighed as heavily as they are in the Heisman race. The best player in country isn't always on the best team, so I think stats should be taken into account more than wins.

As it stands right now, Jayden Daniels leads the nation in total yards per game, is second in total TDs, ranks 8th in completion percentage and is leading the 3rd highest scoring offense in the nation.

If Daniels wants to win the Heisman this year, he needs to be consistent to finish the season. He's still lacking the big win that almost every Heisman needs, but he's still got Alabama to look forward to in a few weeks.

If Daniels' can manage to take home the trophy, he will become the third LSU Tiger to win the award, and he'll be the second since Joe Burrow did it in 2019.