Welcome to my weekly SEC picks with a unique twist.
Each week throughout the regular season, it’s Mad Dog (my high school nickname at Baton Rouge High back in the day) vs. Bad Dog (Buddy the Wonder Bichon, one of my three dogs).
Here’s our method:
As I start my 41st season of covering college football, I use a combination of experience, savvy, intel and occasional hunches.
Buddy employs the leg lift method. Because games (except for neutral sites) are listed as visiting team at home team, if Buddy lifts his left hind leg to relieve himself it means he’s picking the visiting team. If he lifts his right leg, he’s choosing the home team.
In the case of neutral site games – there are five on this opening weekend – the team favored by Las Vegas oddsmakers will be Buddy’s left leg lift and the underdog will be his right leg lift.
I will also pick against the point spread, which is always entertaining. Buddy has declined to pick against the point spread, saying it’s too much work.
Buddy, who has his own Buddy the Wonder Bichon Facebook page, was on my picks panel when I wrote for The Commercial Appeal in Memphis. Every week, he beat at least one and sometimes two other panel members on my eight-person panel. One Memphis radio personality who was on the panel still has nightmares about Buddy beating him on a regular basis.
So here we go, on to Week 1. All times listed are Central.
Georgia Southern (10-3) at No. 6 LSU (10-3, 5-3 SEC), 6:30 p.m. SEC Network, Baton Rouge, Tiger Stadium (LSU is a 25½-point favorite): The day of reckoning is finally here. After seven months of vowing that the Tigers have discovered they can take advantage of the NCAA rule legalizing the forward pass comes the big reveal of a spread offense with an infusion of run-pass option plays. LSU won’t get to use its new defensive techniques centered on the D-line attacking instead of occupying blocks so linebackers can make tackles. Georgia Southern’s triple-option offense forces the defensive line to play disciplined, assignment football. The Eagles averaged nine pass attempts per game last season, so about the only time starting QB Shai Werts will raise his throwing arm Saturday is to apply post-game deodorant. LSU would like to not reveal all of its new offensive scheme since the Tigers play at No. 10 Texas next week.
But Georgia Southern may present enough of a challenge to force LSU to hold back very little. With temperatures still expected to be close to 90 degrees at kickoff and sunset almost an hour after kickoff, the biggest winners on opening night should be the vendors selling beer and wine for the first time to the Tiger Stadium masses. At $8 per beer, LSU should pocket enough money by home game three to build a new library. By the way, there is no truth to the rumor that LSU scheduled this game as part of a contract buyout agreement when current Tigers’ play-by-play announcer Chris Blair left his Georgia Southern announcing gig a couple of years ago for Baton Rouge.
Mad Dog: Burrow and Brady Inc. 51, Triple-Option Threats 10
Bad Dog Buddy: LSU
No. 2 Alabama (14-1, 8-0 SEC) vs. Duke (8-5), 2:30 p.m., ABC, Atlanta, Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Alabama is a 30½-point favorite): It has been a rough preseason for Tide coach Nick Saban. The Nicktator has lost two players for the season and another for an indefinite period of time. Losing five-star freshman running back Trey Sanders (foot) was a blow as was losing starting linebacker redshirt senior linebacker Joshua McMillon (knee), though McMillon may eventually return. The most severe stunner was junior linebacker and Baton Rouge native Dylan Moses sustaining a season-ending ACL tear this week. Moses was Alabama’s best player and the Tide must now play freshmen to fill the gaps left by McMillon and Moses.
Nobody is feeling sorry for Alabama, especially Saban who has fresh talent stockpiled to handle injuries. But for the LSU fans on message boards and in social media comments who took glee in Moses’ injury just because he’s a BR kid who chose to go to Alabama instead of LSU, shame on you. Absolutely pathetic.
Mad Dog: Sabanators 52, Dookies 17
Bad Dog Buddy: Alabama
No. 3 Georgia (11-3, 7-1 SEC) at Vanderbilt (6-7, 3-5 SEC), 6:30 p.m., ESPN, Nashville, Vanderbilt Stadium (Georgia is a 19½-point favorite): A rare regular season opening weekend conference game, Georgia begins its chase once again of trying to beat Alabama in the postseason. The Bulldogs haven’t opened the season with an SEC foe since 1995, but shouldn’t sweat this one too much since 19 of Georgia’s last 21 wins against Vandy have been by double digits. Aside from Alabama, no SEC program has recruited better than Smart who took over at Georgia in 2016 after eight years as Nick Saban’s defensive coordinator at Alabama.
The last two years, Georgia was a combined 24-5 with an SEC title in two championship game appearances and a national title game overtime loss to Alabama. With Georgia, Purdue and LSU as its first three games, Vandy may not see a victory until a Sept. 28 game against Northern Illinois.
Mad Dog: Kirby’s Kanines 41, Comicaldores 10
Bad Dog Buddy: Vanderbilt
Auburn (8-5, 3-5 SEC) vs. Oregon (9-4), 6:30 p.m., ABC, Arlington, Texas, AT&T Stadium (Auburn is a 6½-point favorite): LSU fans are familiar with a highly-ranked Oregon team playing in a season-opener in AT&T Stadium and getting completely vaporized by SEC speed. There are many national college experts who believe Auburn can be a title contender.
But at this point, I think that’s a stretch until true freshman starting quarterback Bo Nix gets about five or six starts under his belt. For the opener, I’m going with the team that has 10 returning offensive starters, including the highest-rated offensive line in college football (according to Phil Steele Magazine) and senior quarterback Justin Hebert who has 28 starts.
Mad Dog: Oregon 28, Auburn 27
Bad Dog Buddy: Auburn
Ole Miss (5-7, 1-7 SEC) at Memphis (8-6), 11 a.m., ABC, Memphis, Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis is a 6½-point favorite): If you want to know what Ole Miss coach Matt Luke is about, just look at his new offensive and defensive coordinator hires. He selected Rich Rodriguez as his O-coordinator and Mike Macintyre as his D-coordinator, a duo that has a combined 25 years college football head coaching experience. Obviously, Luke cares more about winning than worrying about job security and being replaced by either one of his highly-qualified coordinators. Ole Miss is breaking in new starting quarterback Matt Corral and eight other new offensive starters while returning 10 defensive starters from a unit that a year ago ranked last in the SEC and 113th nationally in scoring defense allowing 36.2 points per game.
They’ll face a Memphis offense with almost all of its returning skill position starters from an attack that was seventh nationally last season in scoring (42.9 points per game) and fourth in total offense (523.1 yards per game).
Mad Dog: Memphis 38, Ole Miss 27
Bad Dog Buddy: Memphis
Mississippi State (8-5, 4-4 SEC) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (7-7), 11 a.m., ESPNU, New Orleans, Mercedes-Benz Superdome (Mississippi State is 22½-point favorite):
Bulldogs’ second-year coach Joe Moorhead, who came to State last season after serving as Penn State’s offensive coordinator, predictably filled MSU’s starting quarterback vacancy with Penn State graduate transfer Tommy Stevens. Last season, the Bulldogs scored 39 points in their first four SEC games and 115 in their last four. They survived the offensive inconsistency because they had a pair of all-American defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons who were also first-round NFL draft choices.
The D-line is being re-built, so it’s nice to have a first test drive against Louisiana-Lafayette and second-year coach Billy Napier. Napier made some headlines earlier this month when he said he wanted to make it mandatory for scholarship players to spend $50 to join the school’s booster club. So, what happens if all the players join and band together as boosters to get Napier fired if they’re unhappy?
Mad Dog: Cow Bell Clangers 49, Napier’s Pay-to-Play All-Stars 14
Bad Dog: Mississippi State
South Carolina (7-6, 4-4 SEC) vs. North Carolina (2-9) 2:30 p.m., ESPN, Charlotte, N.C., Bank of America Stadium (South Carolina is a 7½-point favorite): Once upon time back in November 2008, then-University of Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp was named as the Longhorns’ head coach in waiting whenever head coach Mack Brown decided to retire. Brown never retired, but finally resigned at the end of the 2013 season and spent the last five years as an ESPN analyst before being hired as North Carolina’s head coach last November. In the nine years since Muschamp left Texas, he was Florida’s head coach for four seasons before being fired, Auburn’s offensive coordinator for a year and is starting his fourth year as South Carolina’s coach.
Last year’s 7-6 season ended for the Gamecocks with an embarrassing 28-0 loss in the Belk Bowl to Virginia. North Carolina is a combined 5-14 the last two years with four straight losses in season openers. Make it five.
Mad Dog: Fightin’ Chickens 35, Tarred Heels 17
Bad Dog Buddy: North Carolina
Texas State (3-9) at Texas A&M (8-4, 5-3 SEC), 7:30 p.m., SEC Network, College Station, Kyle Field (Texas A&M is a 34½-point favorite): NCIS New Orleans star Scott Bakula takes a one-day leave of absence tonight to reprise his role as the aging quarterback in the 1991 movie Necessary Roughness in which he leads the Texas State Fightin’ Armadillos to eventual victory.
Also reprising her role as Armadillos placekicker is former Sports Illustrated model Kathy Ireland, whose beauty is enough of a distraction to slow the Aggies for a half.
Mad Dog: Agzzzzzzz 55, The Real Texas State 3
Bad Dog Buddy: Texas State
Toledo (7-6) at Kentucky (10-3, 5-3 SEC), 11 a.m., SEC Network, Lexington, Kroger Field (Kentucky is a 13½-point favorite): Kentucky coach Mark Stoops just got a $500,000 pay raise on Thursday following last year’s 10-3 record. Without graduated running back Benny Snell, all the offensive pressure shifts to returning starting QB Terry Wilson.
Mad Dog: Terry Wilson’s the Man 31, Holy Toledo 21
Bad Dog Buddy: Kentucky
Georgia State (2-10) at Tennessee (5-7, 2-6 SEC), 2:30 p.m., ESPNU, Knoxville, Neyland Stadium (Tennessee is a 25½-point favorite): The Vols had two shots to become bowl eligible last year in Jeremy Pruitt’s first season as Vols’ head coach, and lost the last two regular season games to Missouri and Vanderbilt by a combined 88-30. Tennessee’s defense needs vast improvement for the Vols to grab a bowl bid this season.
Mad Dog: Prove It Pruitt 55, Don’t Confuse Us With Georgia Southern 6
Bad Dog Buddy: Tennessee
Portland State (4-7) at Arkansas (2-10, 0-8 SEC), 3 p.m., SEC Network, Fayetteville, Reynolds Razorback Stadium (Arkansas is a 28½-point favorite): The Razorbacks know they have nowhere to go but up on the road to respectability.
Mad Dog: Razorhoggies 38, Portland State 10
Bad Dog: Arkansas
Missouri (8-5, 4-4 SEC) at Wyoming (6-6), 6:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network, Laramie, Wyo., War Memorial Stadium (Missouri is a 14-point favorite): The Tigers have two of their top three leading rushers and four of their top five leading receivers. The graduation loss of quarterback Drew Lock was considered severe until Mizzou picked up former Clemson starter Kelly Bryant, a graduate transfer who amassed 4,311 yards total offense in 18 career starts.
Mad Dog: Kelly’s Heroes 51, Wyoming 20
Bad Dog Buddy: Missouri
