LSU Baseball: How close are the Tigers to making the NCAA Tournament?
If you asked me a few weeks ago if the LSU Tigers would make the NCAA Baseball Tournament, I would've given you a resounding no, but, here we are a few weeks out and LSU looks like they're in a decent spot relative to making the tournament.
On the morning of April 19th, the Tigers were 3-12 in conference play and looked dead in the water. Now, on May 7th, the Tigers are 9-15 in SEC play and have won their last three series, including one over the then-No. 1 ranked team in the country.
Before the Texas A&M series, the Tigers ranked 43rd in the RPI, which is one of the main metrics used to determine tournament teams, but after taking two of the three games this passed weekend, they've jumped all the way up to 34.
The NCAA Baseball Tournament is made up of 64 teams, 31 of which are automatic qualifiers and 33 of which are at large bids. There are currently 10 conferences who have teams ranked higher than LSU in the RPI rankings, meaning if all 10 of those teams win their conference tournament (unlikely, but you should expect roughly half to win their respective conference tournaments), that puts LSU firmly inside the bubble. However, that's assuming they remain at 34th or higher in the RPI, which would require them to play well down the stretch.
The Tigers have just two conference series remaining: Alabama and Ole Miss. The Tide are one game ahead of LSU in the conference standings and rank 14th in the RPI while the Rebels are even with the Tigers in the SEC standings and 25th in the RPI.
I'm by no means an RPI wiz or anything, but winning both of those series should put the Tigers comfortably inside the NCAA Tournament, but a loss or sweep in either of them, especially the Ole Miss series, could be catastrophic to their chances.
The absolute worst thing that could happen, and something that would almost guarantee that the Tigers miss the NCAA Tournament, would be if they lost to Northwestern State on Tuesday night. Northwestern State ranks 175th in the RPI, and a loss would absolutely tank the Tigers ranking.
I know that metrics such as the RPI can be confusing, so let's look at some historical data. Historically, if an SEC team wins 13 conference games, they make the NCAA Tournament 38% of the time. And if a SEC team wins 14 conference games, they're basically a lock to make the postseason, getting in at a 70% clip. With the SEC as good as it is this year and LSU having a pair of wins over a then-No. 1 ranked team, I would think 13 wins would give them a 50-50 shot at getting in.
Right now, the Tigers have nine conference wins and six games to go. If they're able to win four of their next six games, which I think is an achievable mark if they continue to play like they have in recent weeks, they would hit that 13 mark. On top of that, the Tigers will play at least one game in the SEC tournament (more if they win, obviously), essentially giving them seven more chances to win 4+ more conference games.
It isn't going to be easy. Alabama and Ole Miss are good teams, but if the Tigers pitching staff can stay hot and the bats can just play decent, they should be able to make a push for the tournament. Plus, if they're floating around the edge of the bubble, I think the committee might be inclined to give them the defending national champions the nod, but we'll see if the scenario arises.
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