SEC Picks Week 5: Bad Dog not backing down from Mad Dog

Since I still have a three-game lead over him for the season – 38-6 to 35-9 – after we both went 6-3 last week (I was 5-4 against the spread, 24-20 for the year), I figured he actually might be doing research to make his predictions.

I found him, as always, snoozing in a corner of my office.

“Hey Bud, I need your SEC picks for this week,” I said.

Opening one eye, he replied, “What picks? LSU has an open date Saturday. I figured you and I also had the weekend off.”

“That’s not the way it works, Buddy,” I said. “If any SEC teams are playing, we pick. So, how soon can I get your picks?”

Buddy checked his I-watch and said, “Get me a fresh bowl of water. All I need is a nice long drink. Give about 30 minutes for it to filter through, Then, have a flashlight and a notepad because I’ll be ready to start the leg lifting."

He was right. Here’s the SEC Week 5 picks from the Midnight Whizzer and myself:

Ole Miss (2-2, 1-0 SEC West) at No. 2 Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC West), 2:30 p.m., Tuscaloosa (CBS) Betting line: Alabama by 38

Last season in Oxford, Ole Miss lived the upset dream for 70 seconds after scoring on its first snap from scrimmage on a 75-yard TD pass. Alabama scored 62 unanswered points and never threw a fourth quarter pass as Tide coach Nick Saban cleared the bench midway through the third quarter. Look for a repeat this season, except the Rebels won’t score early. Alabama’s defense, vastly rebuilt at linebacker because of an unexpected run of preseason season-ending injuries, has had more moments of vulnerability than you'd expect from the Crimson Tide. Alabama is fifth in the SEC in total defense allowing 287.8 yards per game, but the Tide is still in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense giving up 10.8 points per game. ‘Bama could be allowing more than twice as many points as that (which LSU does at 23.3 per game), but when you have a Tua Tagovailoa-led offense putting up 50 points per game, that 39.2 ppg victory margin makes things rather comfortable. Unless Alabama loses interest, it should have no trouble covering the point spread.

My prediction: High Tide 59, Johnny Rebs 10

Buddy: Alabama

Mississippi State (3-1, 1-0 SEC West) at No. 7 Auburn (4-0, 1-0 SEC West), 6 p.m., Auburn (ESPN) Betting line: Auburn by 10

Here’s your useless information for the week: Auburn is 24-3 when a ranked Tigers’ team plays an unranked Mississippi State squad. It’s a bit of a surprise that Auburn, which already has quality wins over Oregon on a neutral field and at Texas A&M last week, is just a 10-point favorite on its homefield. After all, Mississippi State is still seeking consistent starting quarterback play and Auburn is getting just enough from true freshman starting QB Bo Nix protected by a veteran line that also provides blocking for the SEC’s best running game (259.5 yards per game). Last year when the Bulldogs had three defenders who were to become 2019 NFL first-round draft choices, the Tigers gained just 90 yards rushing in a 23-9 loss to MSU. The tables turn Saturday.

My prediction: Gus Bus 34, Cowbell Clangers 14

Buddy: Auburn

Towson (3-1) at No. 9 Florida (4-0, 2-0 SEC East), 3 p.m., Gainesville (SEC Network) Betting line: Florida by 36½

It’s still hard to believe that the Gators are legitimate threat to win the SEC East, especially after having to elevate junior Kyle Trask to starting QB when Feleipe Franks sustained a season-ending injury against Kentucky on Sept. 14. But Trask might be THE reason folks still feel that way. Saturday’s game is Florida’s final exhibition contest of sorts before it starts a run of six SEC games with back-to-back matchups against Auburn on Oct. 5 and Oct. 12 at LSU. It would behoove Trask and company to maintain focus and make this game the blowout it should be.

My prediction: The Trask at Hand 49, Where’s Our Check? 10

Buddy: Florida

No. 23 Texas A&M (2-2, 0-1 SEC West) vs. Arkansas (2-2, 0-1 SEC West), 11 a.m., Arlington, Texas (ESPN) Betting line: Texas A&M by 23

At the start of this month, Texas A&M was being touted as a College Football Playoff dark horse. Now, the Aggies are at .500 after four games, which is exactly where they were last season at this time. The difference is they have yet to play Alabama. The Aggies should get well Saturday against a team that is neck-and-neck with Tennessee as the SEC’s worst. Arkansas hasn’t shown a hint of progression early in Hogs’ coach Chad Morris' second season in Fayetteville. A&M has won seven straight over Arkansas, but four of the last five last victories have been one-possession affairs with three going to overtime. Can’t see this one being close.

My prediction: Gig ‘Em 42, Hogtied 17

Buddy: Texas A&M

Kentucky (2-2, 0-2 SEC East) at South Carolina (1-3, 0-2 SEC East), 6:30 p.m, Columbia (SEC Network) Betting line: South Carolina by 3

Two teams desperate for a SEC win, both trying to re-start offenses after losing their starting quarterbacks with severe injuries. UK’s Terry Wilson sustained a season-ending torn patella while South Carolina’s Jake Bentley is out for at least six or seven weeks with a broken foot. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp, who somehow keeps getting head coach jobs despite a career full of mediocre teams at Florida and South Carolina, needs this win worse than UK’s Mark Stoops.

My prediction: Carolina Chickadees 24, Blue Grass Cats 20

Buddy: South Carolina

Northern Illinois (1-2) at Vanderbilt (0-3, 0-2 SEC East), 11 a.m., Nashville (SEC Network) Betting line: Vanderbilt by 6½

Does anyone care about this game? Vandy fans don’t. They have better things to do on a football Saturday than watching this team.

My prediction: Vanderdoodle 35, Fighting Compasses of Northern Illinois 21

Buddy: Northern Illinois