SEC Picks Week 7: Bad Dog Buddy taps into Vegas connections
There’s nothing like waking up Sunday morning with a cocky Bichon standing on your chest and nose-to-nose staring in your eyes.
“You can’t shake me, Mad Dog,” Buddy the Wonder Bichon said.
“What?” I said. “And good morning to you, too.”
“Oh yeah, good morning,” Buddy said. “Just lettin' you know you can’t shake me. We were both 4-1 last week in our SEC picks.”
“True, though I’m 48-7 for the season and you’re 44-11,” I said. “So, I still have a four-game lead heading into week 7, the second half of the season.”
“I know,” Buddy said. “But I’ve got a plan to erase that lead.”
“Which is?” I inquired.
“I have a team of friends in Las Vegas who hang around the oddsmakers,” Buddy said. “I have Bigbutt Billy Bulldog at the Bellagio, Moron Mikey the Maltese at Mandalay Bay, Parlay Petey the Pomeranian at the Palms, Cool Cal the Collie at the Cosmo, No-Lose Luther the Lab at the Luxor, Terrible Tammy the Terrier at the Tropicana, Headcase Harry the Hound at Harrah’s and of course Gullible Gary the Golden Retriever at the Golden Nugget.
“All these are highly-intelligent acquaintances, seasoned professionals that process inside info and lift legs at Vegas’ best sports books. Along with my leg liftin', I’ll get a consensus pick for each game from them.
“It’s just a matter of time before I’m leaving you in the dust.”
“Bring it on, Bud,” I said. “Now, get out of my face so I can get some coffee.”
Welcome to week 7 of the SEC picks. One more thing: I was 4-1 against the spread last week to improve to 32-23 on the season.
Six of the seven games this week are league affairs. Auburn has an open date.
No. 7 Florida (6-0, 3-0 SEC East) at No. 5 LSU (5-0, 1-0 SEC West), 7 p.m., Baton Rouge (ESPN) Betting line: LSU by 13½
When the Las Vegas oddmakers immediately established the Tigers as a two-touchdown favorite on Sunday, I thought maybe some of the Vegas sports books were located next door to the numerous Vegas marijuana dispensaries. Maybe the loco weed was filtering through central air vents into the Vegas backrooms where oddsmakers figure out betting lines. The crazy thing more often than not they are fairly accurate with their point spreads. So, what do Vegas oddsmakers see to make LSU an overwhelming favorite? They obviously believe LSU’s nation-leading 54.8 points per game offense can’t be slowed enough by a Florida defense that leads the SEC in scoring defense allowing 9.5 points per game. They think that LSU’s offensive line, embarrassed last season in the Tigers’ loss at Florida, can’t wait for the challenge of this season’s Gators’ defensive line which has an SEC-leading 26 sacks including 10 in the season-opening win over Miami. They know while Florida has two shutdown cornerbacks, the Gators can’t cover LSU’s deep receiving corps. They believe that if blitz-happy Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham goes after LSU QB Joe Burrow, he will burn them to the ground like every other defense this season. But for me, the bottom line is if LSU loses to a team with a quarterback (Kyle Trask) starting his first road game since he was a freshman leading his high school junior varsity team, then the Tigers don't deserve to be in the college football playoff hunt.
My prediction: Ti-gahs 34, Ti-gah Bait 24
Buddy: LSU
No. 1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC West) at No. 24 Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1 SEC West), 2:30 p.m., College Station (CBS) Betting line: Alabama by 17
At the start of the season, this game looked like it might be one of the SEC’s best matchups of 2019. But through the first month, it’s obvious A&M’s biggest vacancy it has yet to fill is finding a stud running back to carry the load. Last season, A&M’s 9-4 team was powered by then-junior Trayveon Williams, who led the SEC in rushing yards, rushing TDs and all-purpose yards. Williams declared for the NFL Draft and is now with the Cincinnati Bengals. Meanwhile, A&M is next-to-last in the SEC in rushing (133.4 ypg), relying strictly on the playmaking ability of QB Kellen Mond, who’s third in the SEC in total offense (288.6 ypg) behind LSU’s Joe Burrow and Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. It could be a brutal day for A&M’s defense. Tagovailoa has a 23 to 0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Though A&M is second in the SEC in pass defensive efficiency, it hasn’t played a quarterback and receiving corps anywhere close in talent to Alabama’s. There’s also the fact A&M is dead last in the SEC in sacks. If leave Tuscaloosa Tua standing like a statue spying receivers, you are in T-R-O-U-B-L-E.
My prediction: Nicktator’s Sabanators 45, Jim-bob Fisher All-Stars 17
Buddy: Alabama
South Carolina (2-3, 1-2 SEC East) at No. 3 Georgia (5-0, 2-0 SEC East), 11 a.m., Athens (ESPN) Betting line: Georgia by 23½
Another coaching battle of friends and former Saban assistants on the staff of LSU’s 2003 national championship team, this game's almost four-TD point spread screams about the direction of both programs. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs arguably are the best team in the SEC so far, ranked in the league in the top three in total and scoring offense and total and scoring defense including first in rushing offense and rushing defense. In last Saturday’s 43-14 victory at Tennessee, Smart finally took the shackles off QB Jake Fromm’s passing arm and let him rip. Fromm completed 24-of-29 passes for 288 yards and two TDs. Will Muschamp’s Gamecocks are simply trying to keep afloat. True freshman quarterback Ryan Hilinski doing his best to spark an offense after losing starting QB Jake Bentley with a season-ending injury on the last play of the season opening loss to North Carolina.
My prediction: JawJa Bulldoggies 48, Dixie Chickens 17
Buddy: Georgia
Arkansas (2-3, 0-2 SEC West) at Kentucky (2-3, 0-3 SEC East), 6 p.m., Lexington (SEC Network) Betting line: Kentucky by 6½
It’s hard to tell who will have the biggest challenge in this battle royal of two 2-win teams winless in SEC play. Will it be Kentucky’s offense which hasn’t scored more than 21 points in each of its last three games since losing starting quarterback Terry Wilson with a season-ending injury? Will it be Arkansas defense that has allowed 31 or more points in each of its last four games? Or will it be the SEC Network announcing team of Tom "Be Still My Beating" Hart, Jordan “My Hair is Perfect" Rodgers” and Cole “Three-Point Stance” Cubelic being creative and chatty as possible to keep viewers engaged and from switching to the Bravo Channel to watch “90-Day Fiance?”
My prediction: Porkers 24, Frisky Kitties 14
Buddy: Kentucky
Ole Miss (3-3, 2-1 SEC West) at Missouri (4-1, 1-0 SEC East), Columbia, 6 p.m. (ESPN2) Betting line: Missouri by 12½
The Rebels are a bit of a surprise at this point and could very easily be 5-1 with narrow losses at Memphis (15-10) and at home to Cal (28-20) in a contest that a Pac 12 officiating crew played outstanding game-ending goal line defense. Ole Miss’ unexpected caveat through the first month of the season is 83.3 percent of the Rebels’ offense (2,189 of 2,628 yards) have come from freshmen, the most by any team in the country. True freshman John Rhys Plumlee, Ole Miss’ piano-playin’ gospel-singing QB, has proved himself as an effective RPO operator leading the Rebs to 31 points in each of his first two college starts. He’s the SEC's second leading rusher averaging 109 yards per game. True freshman running back Jerrion Ealy is averaging 8.2 yards per carry. The problem is Ole Miss can’t pass protect, giving up a league-worst 14 sacks. Former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant has put up some solid numbers in his first year as Missouri’s starter, throwing for 1,246 yards and 11 TDs and ranking fourth in the SEC in total offense (274.8 ypg). But it’s Mizzou’s defense carrying the day. The Tigers are one of only four FBS teams ranked in the top 12 nationally in rushing defense, passing defense, total defense and scoring defense.
My prediction: Mizzou Crew 34, Oxford Landsharks 21
Buddy: Missouri
Mississippi State (3-2, 1-1 SEC West) at Tennessee (1-4, 0-2 SEC East), 11 a.m., Knoxville (SEC Network) Betting line: Mississippi State by 7
The Vols and the Bulldogs share the same predicament. Five games into the season, both teams have yet to find a consistent starting quarterback to bolster anemic offenses that rank near the bottom of the SEC. State’s offense has the SEC’s fourth best rushing attack, but also has the worst passing game in the conference. Two Bulldogs’ QBs (Tommy Stevens, Garrett Shrader) combine to complete just 56.7 percent with seven TDs and three interceptions. The Tennessee QB trio of Jarett Guarantano, Brian Maurer and J.T. Shrout aren’t lighting it up either, combining for a 55.4 completion percentage with nine TDs and six interceptions. With MSU ranked second-to-last in the SEC in total defense, Tennessee has to feel it has a good chance to get its first SEC win.
My prediction: Orange People 31, Starkvegas Canines 24
Buddy: Mississippi State
UNLV (1-4) at Vanderbilt (1-4), 3 p.m., Nashville (SEC Network) Betting line: Vanderbilt by 14½
Welcome to the 3-and-Out Bowl. The only relevant stat you need to know is Vanderbilt punter Harrison Smith leads the nation in punts per game at 7.2 and UNLV’s Hayes Hicken is second at 7 per game.
My prediction: Punt Vandy Punt 34, Punt Rebs Punt 17
Buddy: UNLV