SEC Picks Week 8: Bad Dog Buddy cuts a game off Mad Dog's lead

In a stunning upset, I didn’t have a smart-mouthed bichon talking trash before I could even get my eyes open last Sunday morning.

Yes, Buddy the Wonder Bichon let me sleep in after a long, wild night of working late in Tiger Stadium. I also figured I beat him again in the weekly SEC picks, so he was making himself scarce.

But then I checked the results. He outpicked me 5-2 to 4-3, cutting my season lead to three games (52-10 to 49-13). My picks against the spread were an awful 2-5 (34-28 in the year).

I thought he’d be gloating. Instead, I found him in my office in front of my lap top.

“What are you doing, tapping into your Vegas connection again?” I asked.

“No, I’m doing research,” Buddy said. “I’m just three games behind you now. So, I’m trying to find the winning edge.”

“The winning edge?” I quizzed.

“Yeah, I heard Coach O talk about it after LSU beat Florida,” Buddy said. “He said that the Tiger Stadium crowd gave the Tigers the winning edge.”

“So, Bud, what’s going to be your winning edge?” I said.

“I’m researching the greatest TV and movie dogs in history,” Buddy said. “I want to know how Lassie always found that dopey kid who continually fell in wells, how Pongo kept outsmarting Cruella Deville, how Air Bud trained to get his hops, how Rin Tin Tin never backed down from a fight, how Scooby Doo always acted dumb but was a genius at solving mysteries and how all those dogs were so smart and lively yet they had to be backed up because we never saw them poop.”

“And you think this will help you catch me in the picks?” I asked.

“Absolutely,” Buddy said. “In the famous words of Coach O, `We comin’.’”

On with the SEC Week 8 picks:

No. 2 LSU (6-0, 2-0 SEC West) at Mississippi State (3-3, 1-2 SEC West), 2:30 p.m., Starkville (CBS) Betting line: LSU by 18½

In past LSU seasons, Saturday’s matchup against the Bulldogs would be considered a trap game since it falls between the Tigers’ battles against a pair of top 11 opponents (Florida and Auburn). Trap game victims are usually immature teams whose weekly performances run from hot to luke warm to puzzling. The emotional inconsistency of getting hyped to play against the perceived stronger teams on a schedule and muddle through lesser performances isn’t a way to win a championship. Sooner or later, it catches you. LSU coach Ed Orgeron’s message of “blocking out the noise” (media hype, social media, fan love) and focusing on weekly improvement has resonated with the Tigers, especially with their group of veteran leaders. This team never looks past the current Saturday. When it sees Mississippi State, LSU recalls a team that it lost to by 30 points two years ago in Starkville. True, the current Bulldogs have nowhere the near the team it possessed in 2017 in Dan Mullen’s last year as head coach. Mullen had a knack of taking mostly 3-star players, especially on offense, coaching the up and installing a system that fit the capabilities of the talent. Former Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, in his second year after replacing Mullen in Starkvegas, has yet to master this. Last season’s 8-5 record was mostly due to a defense that produced three 2019 NFL first-round draft choices. State’s defense is average this season, Moorhead can’t find a starting quarterback he truly likes and it seems as if LSU’s defense is primed for total destruction. I see at least a 5-sack day for the Tigers and a Joe Burrow 5-TD passing game.

My prediction: Jeauxy Football 54, Starkvegas Mutts 10

Buddy: LSU

Tennessee (2-4, 1-2 SEC East) at No. 1 Alabama (6-0, 3-0 SEC West), 8 p.m., Tuscaloosa (ESPN) Betting line: Alabama by 34½

The following stat should make LSU fans feel better – Tennessee has lost 12 straight times to Alabama, four more than LSU’s current eight-game loss streak to the Crimson Tide. Yes, Nick Saban owns both those streaks, including beating five different Tennessee coaches (two of which are his former assistants). Expect Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa to torch Tennessee. Tagovailoa is averaging 4.5 TD passes per game for an Alabama offense that is second behind LSU in the SEC in scoring (51 ppg) and total offense (536.8). Tennessee has one of the league’s worst third down conversion defenses, but it won’t matter against the Crimson Tide. Alabama will score so fast it won’t even need third down.

My prediction: Tuscaloosa Tsunami 49, Vols-in-Tears 14

Buddy: Alabama

No. 9 Florida (6-1, 3-1 SEC East) at South Carolina (3-3, 2-2 SEC East), 11 a.m., Columbia (ESPN) Betting line: Florida by 5½

After watching Florida push LSU to the limit last weekend before losing 42-28 in Tiger Stadium, it appears the Gators are one of the top three teams in the SEC displacing Georgia, a stunning 20-17 overtime loser at home to South Carolina. Credit Florida coach Dan Mullen for calling a brilliant offensive game to help relatively inexperienced starting QB Kyle Trask, who didn’t appear to be rattled in the midst of the Tiger Stadium craziness. He won’t be again this weekend and Florida shouldn't be in a scoring match for the second straight week. As for South Carolina, every time you get to the point of questioning if head coach Will Muschamp will ever make the Gamecocks a contender in the Eastern Division, they spring an upset before limping back into their hole of mediocrity.

My prediction: Sunshine State 34, Birds of a Feather 24

Buddy: South Carolina

Kentucky (3-3, 1-3 SEC East) at No. 10 Georgia (5-1, 2-1 SEC East), 5 p.m., Athens (ESPN) Betting line: Georgia by 25

Injury-plagued Kentucky got its first SEC win last weekend by moving wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. to starting quarterback. He ran for 196 yards and two TDs and threw for a TD in a 24-20 win over Arkansas. Now, Bowden faces a once-beaten Georgia team coming off a totally unexpected loss to South Carolina. If Georgia still believes it a championship-caliber squad, it should destroy Kentucky early and often, and then keep its foot on the Wildcats’ throat.

My prediction: Hot Dawgs 48, Cool ‘Cats 14

Buddy’s prediction: Georgia

No. 11 Auburn (5-1, 2-1 SEC West) at Arkansas (2-4, 0-3 SEC West), 11 a.m., Fayetteville (SEC Network) Betting line: Auburn by 19

Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is trying to replace running back Boobee Whitlow, its leading rusher with 544 yards and seven TDs in six games. He sustained a knee injury during Auburn’s 24-13 loss to Florida two weeks ago and is out for four to six weeks after undergoing surgery. Kam Martin, Shaun Shivers, D.J. Williams, Harold Joiner and Malik Miller all rotated in Whitlow’s vacancy during last week’s open date. Since Arkansas ranks 13th in the 14-team SEC in rushing defense, it probably won’t matter who Auburn starts at running back. The Tigers could start 56-year old former Auburn Heisman Trophy winner Bo Jackson and even with a hip replacement he still might get 150 yards on the Hogs.

My prediction: Malzahnators 38, Oinkers 17

Buddy: Auburn

No. 22 Missouri (5-1, 2-0 SEC East) at Vanderbilt (1-5, 0-3 SEC East), 3 p.m., Nashville (SEC Network) Betting line: Missouri by 21

Even halfway into the season, it’s still hard to get a grasp on Missouri. The Tigers have won five straight games since losing the season-opener at Wyoming, but it has been against fairly underwhelming competition. Missouri’s entire season will be decided in consecutive games at Georgia Nov. 9 and vs. Florida Nov. 16. Vanderbilt is awful. Too bad it doesn’t get to play Arkansas this season.

My prediction: Miz-zoo-rah 42, Commode-dores 20

Buddy: Missouri

Texas A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC West) at Ole Miss (3-4, 2-2 SEC West), 6:30 p.m., Oxford (SEC Network) Betting line: Texas A&M by 6½

A&M might be a TD favorite, but it’s a shaky 6½. Ole Miss is second in the SEC in rushing (230 ypg) and A&M is 13th (132 ypg). If Ole Miss can run and live up to its league ranking of fourth in turnover margin (A&M is dead last), then the Rebels have a shot at the upset. So I'll go out on a limb here.

My prediction: Hotty Toddy Rebels 31, Aggravated Aggies 28

Buddy: Texas A&M