It’s thoroughly documented that magical things often happen for LSU every May in the Southeastern Conference baseball tournament.
No matter how shaky the season has transpired, it’s all forgotten once the Tigers and their sizeable fan following walk through the Hoover (Ala.) Met Stadium gates.
LSU is 35-8 under 13th-year coach Paul Mainieri in the league tournament, winning six of the past 11 SEC gatherings.
“It’s (the SEC tourney) technically not part of the regular season,” Tigers’ third-year sophomore pitcher Eric Walker. “And it’s not the postseason because you can lose and your season is not over. I think it’s the enjoyment of being in Hoover.”
The Tigers have won the SEC tournament with the luxury of first-round byes and have made serious runs to the finals even when they’ve had to play in the Tuesday night single elimination round.
Different years provide various drama, such as LSU playing for a national top eight seed two years ago when the Tigers won the SEC tourney en route to the College World Series, or battling just to get an at-large bid like last year when 8th seeded LSU advanced to finals against Ole Miss.
This year’s storyline has fifth-seeded LSU (34-22 overall, 17-13 SEC) bouncing on the bubble as a possible NCAA regional host when the Tigers play their third Tuesday night SEC tourney opener tonight at 8 against 12th seeded South Carolina (28-27, 8-22).
“It’s a lot of pressure, man, to drive 5½ to 6 hours to play one game and then turn around and drive home (If you lose),” Mainieri said. “No thank you.
“Let’s win that first game so we are guaranteed two more games.”
Mainieri doesn’t have illusions of grandeur, and neither does his team.
The realistic goal for LSU isn’t to win the tournament. It’s to win tonight to set up a Wednesday night date against No. 4 seed and co-Western Division champs Mississippi State (45-11, 20-10 SEC). The Bulldogs will be focused on avenging losing this year’s regular season series to LSU in Starkvegas.
And whatever happens after that just happens.
At this point, there’s a couple of indisputable truths about the 2019 Tigers.
The first is their pitching staff has never stayed healthy long enough for Mainieri to automatically know his starting rotation. Every week, it seems as if he’s shuffling able bodies in and out as they become healed enough to pitch.
Tonight, LSU will start true freshman Cole Henry for the first time in five weeks. He has been recovering from a sore arm after striking out 12 in a 13-1 win over Florida on April 19.
“It’s important he (Henry) gets out there this week because it’s a precursor to the NCAA tournament,” Mainieri said. “If he can throw three really good innings with a reasonable pitch count, perhaps next week in the NCAA tournament he can throw five innings.
“That would give us three quality starting pitchers (along with Walker and true freshman Landon Marceaux) for the NCAA tournament. If you hope to win a regional, you have to get through three games.”
The glimmer of hope that LSU takes into Hoover is its two season-long problem areas – starting pitching and slow offensive starts – simultaneously disappeared in the Tigers’ regular season closing SEC series win over Auburn.
In game one and two victories, Walker and Marceaux delivered two-hitters each allowing one run over six and seven innings respectively. Two Tigers’ pitchers, including starter Devin Fontenot, combined for four scoreless innings in the game three extra-innings loss.
In its last five games dating back to game two of the Arkansas series, the LSU pitching staff has a 2.68 earned run average allowing just 14 earned runs in 47 innings. Opponents are hitting just .207 against LSU in that span.
The LSU offense came through early in the Auburn series, establishing a 5-1 lead through five innings in game one, a 4-1 advantage through four innings in game two and a 3-2 edge through six innings in game three.
“We played really well, the starting pitching especially,” said LSU senior right fielder Antoine Duplantis, who’s batting .476 (10-for-21) in the last five games with three homers, seven RBI and seven runs scored. “We got some clutch hits and we played good all-around baseball.”
The second irrefutable fact is Mainieri has no idea how many wins it will take in Hoover for LSU to clinch a berth as an NCAA regional host.
The Tigers are No. 21 in the latest RPI rankings, and LSU has 19 wins over Top 50 RPI teams, which is the fifth-highest total in the nation. LSU has seven series wins against RPI Top 50 opponents.
Also, LSU has 10 wins vs. the current RPI Top 25 and holds four series wins against RPI Top 25 opponents. The Tigers’ strength of schedule is rated as high as No. 7 nationally entering the SEC tourney.
“I don’t know if one win or three wins will do it (earn LSU a regional host bid),” Mainieri said. “The selection committee has never been very transparent.
“Remember, it’s not just what we do, but what other teams do. For instance, Cal-Santa Barbara has a great record (44-7) but it hasn’t played a single game against a top 50 RPI team. How does the committee look at that? I have no idea. . .you have to trust the selection committee will do the right thing.”
Meanwhile for the Tigers, it’s all about the now.
“We not looking at it to see if we’re going to host or not,” LSU junior reliever Zack Hess said. “We’re just trying to win that game against South Carolina. We know it’s a do or die situation.”
