There are many reasons Las Vegas oddsmakers have installed Florida as a mere 2½-point favorite over LSU when the teams meet in Gainesville Saturday at 6 p.m. on ESPN.,
Recent history indicates the betting line almost doesn’t matter in this game.
Two years ago in Gainesville, 3-5 LSU was a 23-point underdog to No. 6 once-beaten Florida when Cade York kicked a school-record game-winning 57-yard field goal through the fog for a 37-34 win.
Last season a week after LSU got pummeled at Kentucky by 21 points, the 3-3 Tigers were a 12-point underdog in Tiger Stadium when running back Ty Davis-Price ran for a school-record 287 yards and three TDs in a 49-42 victory over the No. 20 Gators.
Fast-forward to this season, the Tigers (4-2 overall, 2-1 SEC West) and the Gators (4-2, 1-2 SEC East) mirror each other in several ways.
Both teams have four wins. Both have first-year head coaches – LSU’s Brian Kelly and Florida’s Billy Napier – looking for glimpses of consistency. Starting quarterbacks Jayden Daniels of LSU and Anthony Richardson of Florida lean on their athleticism and running ability rather than their passing skill.
Most of all, both programs are a definite, unpredictable game-to-game work-in-progress.
“We’re in the middle of teaching guys new habits, a new way of thinking, a new way of doing things,” Kelly said. "They want to do it, but it's hard. They're committed to doing it. This process is a process. That's the reality of it.”
Said Napier, “I heard a coach say one time that you're always really close to being a very good team and you're always really close to being a very bad team. That describes our team in a lot of ways. We have a very capable group. What I'm hopeful that we see here is we start to minimize errors a little bit better, we start to be more efficient, and we start to believe a little bit more.”
Florida seems to have an edge over LSU offensively because the Gators have a discernible strength than gives them an identity.
Despite Richardson’s less-than-stellar passing stats of 81 of 145 for 1,182 yards, 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, the Gators rank fourth in the SEC and 19th nationally in rushing offense (213 yards per game).
Also, Florida’s 6.4 yards per carry ranks third in the FBS. Florida has three players – Richardson and running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne – among the top seven players in the SEC in yards per carry.
“They’re a good running team,” said LSU defensive end Ali Gaye, who was part of a defense last Saturday that was steamrolled for 263 rushing yards in a 40-13 loss to then-No. 8 Tennessee. “We’ve got to kill that engine, stop that run.”
Richardson is talented, but erratic.
He can be on fire as he was in Florida’s 29-26 season-opening win over then-No. 7 Utah when he completed 17 of 24 passes for 168 yards and ran for 106 yards and 3 TDs on 11 carries.
Or he can be a turnover machine throwing two interceptions (including a pick six) and losing a fumble in a 38-33 loss at then-No. 11 Tennessee three weeks ago.
“As of late, he's been making more good ones than bad ones,” Napier said of what he perceives as Richardson’s improved decision-making.
LSU, which averages 31.8 points and 428.8 total yards per game (172.5 rushing, 256.3 passing), has yet to find an offensive identity.
One reason is injuries and illness has caused the Tigers to use five starting offensive line combinations in the first six games. Miles Frazier is the only player to start every game on the offensive line this year and he’s done so at 3 positions (3 at LG, 2 at RG, 1 at RT).
Then, there's Daniels’ continued struggle to make himself throw the ball downfield into tight windows to allow his receivers to make plays.
His passing stats (121 of 176 for 1,215 yards, a 68.8 completion percentage, 7 TDs and 1 interception) and the fact he leads LSU in rushing (359 yards and 3 TDs on 76 carries) are a reflection that he still won’t often pull the trigger on passes more than 10 yards.
“The passing game has been up and down,” Kelly said. “We need more consistency in the passing game. That’s why we’re 4-2. I think we've taken some steps forward. We're better than we were at the start of the year, but we still have some room to grow.”
If Daniels puts his fear of committing turnovers aside and lets it rip downfield to an array of receivers, LSU could do significant damage. Florida is 12th in the 14-team SEC and 99th nationally in total defense allowing 412.8 yards per game.
There are several other intertwining plot lines provided by the college football's new transitory nature with the creation and acceleration of the transfer portal.
LSU cornerback Mehki Garner and wide receiver Kyren Lacy played under now-Florida coach Napier last season at UL-Lafayette before he was hired by the Gators. Napier brought many of UL-Lafayette coaching staff and support personnel with him to Gainesville and hired longtime LSU defensive backs coach Corey Raymond.
"He was the one that gave me an opportunity," Garner said of Napier. "Now, it's time to put it all together and show him he created a monster."
Also, Florida wide receiver Ricky Pearsall transferred this season to the Gators from Arizona State. It's where the majority of the 61 passes he caught for 794 yards and 10 TDs as a Sun Devil were thrown by now-LSU QB Daniels, who transferred to the Tigers this past spring.
"We Facetime all the time," said Pearsall of his continued friendship with Daniels. "We have a little rivalry with each other."
Also, Napier was mentioned prominently as a possible LSU head coaching candidate to replace Ed Orgeron , who was fired effective at the end of last season.
Napier's 44-14 record in four seasons coaching the Ragin' Cajuns (including two Sun Belt titles) and his high-scoring offenses made him attractive for many coaching vacancies nationally. He was supposedly never contacted by LSU because Tigers' athletic director Scott Woodward wanted a veteran proven winner plus a "splash" hire and found one in Notre Dame's Kelly.
"I don't know that's something you talk publicly about,'' Napier said of whether LSU showed interest in him. "I think we're all well aware of chaotic times in college football when you get to November, December, January.
"I'll tell you one thing. I'm grateful for the opportunity I was given here. I can't imagine being at a much better place. This path was right. That's what I would say."