Using math and science to show why Malik Nabers deserves the Biletnikoff

Tuesday was a notable day for the Biletnikoff award as the three finalists were announced by the Tallahassee Quarterback Club Foundation and the ballots were sent out to the Biletnikoff voters. The final vote to determine the Biletnikoff Award Winner runs from Nov.28 through Dec.2, 2023.

The thing that I'm having hard time wrapping my head around with all this is that anyone else other than Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. seems like an afterthought to the national media over the last several weeks.

While Harrison is and has been considered the favorite to win the Biletnikoff for the last several weeks, what I can't figure out is why. Okay, I know why. But when you really break it down, should he be?

Sure, if I'm building an NFL roster and I'm drafting a wide receiver in the 2024 NFL Draft there's no question about it, I'm taking Marvin Harrison Jr. all day, every day. But that's not what this award is about.

The Biletnikoff Award is presented annually to the season’s outstanding college football receiver regardless of position (the award defines receiver as any player who catches a pass hence, tight ends, slot receivers and backs, inside receivers, wide receivers, split ends, and running backs are eligible) by the Tallahassee Quarterback Club Foundation, Inc.

So now that we've established that the award is presented to the best pass catcher in all of college football, let's take a deep dive into the college football season and break down each of the finalist using stats, metrics and analytics to find out exactly which of these three finalists is the best pass catcher.

Even just looking at your typical run of the mill receiver stats, it becomes clear that the other receivers are not being talked about enough.

Looking at the numbers above each receiver has played the same number of games and LSU receiver Malik Nabers leads or is tied for the lead in four out of the five traditional wide receiver stats. He has the most receptions, the most yards, is tied for the most touchdowns of the three and averages the most yards per game.

The only negative thing you can say is that Washington receiver Rome Odunze averages 0.18 yards per reception more than Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr averages 0.09 yards per reception more than Nabers.

For context

0.18 yards per reception = 6.48 inches per reception

0.09 yards per reception = 3.24 inches per reception

So, if Malik Nabers doesn't win this award, he's going to lose it to guys that he led in four out of five major receiving categories but because Rome Odunze averages a little more than six inches more per reception or Marvin Harrison's three more inches per reception, somehow negates Nabers' excellence in every other major receiving category?

If that's not enough, let's take this a step further and looks at some more advanced stats and metrics.

That's 10 advanced stats or metrics calculated for receivers. Targets don't really sway things one way or another it was only included to show the passing volume, which was incredibly close. Both Harrison and Odunze have the same number of Targets and Nabers leads the group with ten more targets. But the other ten, that's where you can really start to make your case if you're Malik Nabers.

looking at the advanced stats, Nabers leads or is tied in eight out of the ten categories.

1. Malik Nabers has played the same number of games as the other finalists.

2. Malik Nabers has been targeted just 10 times more than the other finalists.

3. Malik Nabers has more receptions than any other finalist.

4. Malik Nabers has more receiving yards than any other finalist.

5. Malik Nabers is tied for the lead of 14 receiving touchdowns out of the three finalists.

6. Malik Nabers averages more receiving yards per game than any of the other finalists.

7. The other finalists have a just a 6.48 inches-per-reception and 3.24 inches-per-reception advantage over Malik Nabers.

8. Malik Nabers graded out higher than any other finalist on PFF's receiving grade and was the highest graded receiver in all of college football for the 2023 season when it comes to PFF's receiving grade.

9. Malik Nabers caught more of his on-target passes than any other finalist.

10. Malik Nabers averaged more yards-per-route ran than both of the other finalists.

11. Malik Nabers dropped just 6.5-percent of his on-target passes, which is a better rate than the Biletnikoff favorite Marvin Harrison Jr. but less than Rome Odunze's 3.9-percent.

12. Malik Nabers has 60 missed tackles forced, that's good for third out of all receivers in the entire country and is 19 more missed tackles forced than fellow finalist Rome Odunze and 25 more than Marvin Harrison Jr.

13. Malik Nabers' 69 receptions that led to a first down is more than any other finalist.

14. Malik Nabers has the second-best contested catch rate (47.6%) out of the three finalists behind Rome Odunze's 68.2-percent.

15. Malik Nabers has the highest NFL Passer Rating when targeted.

16. Malik Nabers has the most 100-yard games out of any finalist.

17. Malik Nabers joins Rome Odunze as the only two finalists with zero games with less than 50 yards receiving. Marvin Harrison Jr has had four games where he had less than 50 yards receiving.

If you can look at all that data above and still come to the conclusion that somehow Marvin Harrison Jr. despite not solely leading in any individual category above deserves this award over Malik Nabers and or Rome Odunze than we might as well just scrap this award. Because every stat and metric listed above is about receiving and catching passes. The only category Harrison leads over any of the finalists is the one you don't want to be No.1 in.

This is Malik Nabers award, hands down. I would say Rome Odunze would be the No.2 option over Harrison Jr. based on the facts above. There's no case that can be made for Marvin Harrison Jr. You could make an argument for Odunze because he does lead in some of the other metrics, but Nabers leads the majority of them and was far and away a more productive receiver than both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze, the math proves it, the science proves it, and the facts prove it.

Give the man his award and vote for Malik Nabers.