Published Nov 13, 2023
Heisman Check-In: Jayden Daniels record setting performance boosts his odds
Luke Hubbard  •  Death Valley Insider
Analyst
Twitter
@clukehubbard

Jayden Daniels lit the college football world on fire with his performance against Florida on Saturday. Not only did he lead his offense to 52 points, he played at a level that has never been seen before.

Daniels became the first quarterback in FBS history to throw for 350+ yards and rush for 200+ yards. He also became the second SEC QB to throw for 200+ and rush for 200+, and he did that by the third quarter. He also set the single-game total yards record in the SEC with 606.

The internet raved about Daniels' performance on Saturday night, so much so that the term "Jayden Daniels Heisman" reached 64 million people on Saturday night alone.

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Unless you're an Oregon, Washington, Ohio State or Michigan fan, you probably are in the belief that Jayden Daniels deserves the Heisman trophy. He leads the nation in total yards (4,082) which is 500+ more than second place, he leads the nation in passing touchdowns (30) and he leads the country in QB rating (202.1) with the next closest being JJ McCarthy with a 187.

Statistically, he is absolutely blowing the competition out of the water. Nobody has been able to put up anywhere near the same stats as Daniels, and yet, he still only has the third best odds to win the award on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Heisman Odds
Odds subject to change
PlayerDraftKingsFanDuel

Bo Nix

+120

-110

Michael Penix Jr.

+300

+400

Jayden Daniels

+380

+400

Marvin Harrison Jr.

+450

+500

Brian Kelly isn't usually one for talking about individual awards, but I think he's starting to feel the disrespect towards Daniels. He talked after the Florida game about Daniels' performance and how it should make him the favorite for the Heisman trophy. He said if he isn't the leading candidate after Saturday night, then maybe the Heisman is just a popularity contest.

"Here's what I'll say. His numbers obviously prove to everybody what he's done over the entire year, and then a night like tonight, I think kind of solidifies that...If he didn't win [the Heisman] tonight, he's got to be the leading candidate because of what he did tonight. Unless the Heisman is just about popularity, if you want to be the most popular, then fine, but he's the best player in college football. He did something tonight that no one's ever done. If that doesn't make you the leading candidate, then maybe the Heisman is not really for the best player, maybe it's for the most popular player."
Brian Kelly

It seems that Vegas has nailed down the four frontrunners for the Heisman in Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Marvin Harrison and Michael Penix Jr., so let's compare the stats from those four players through 10 games.

Heisman Favorite's Stats
PayerJayden DanielsBo NixMichael Penix Jr.

Passing Yards

3,164

3,135

3,533

Rushing Yards

918

121

-27

Passing TD's

30

29

28

Rushing TD's

8

5

2

Completion %

71.4%

77.7%

68%

INT's

4

2

7

It wasn't possible to show Marvin Harrison's stats in there because he's a WR, but he has 59 catches for 1,063 yards and 12 TD's. Malik Nabers has 72 catches for 1,284 yards and 10 TD's, but I don't think anyone's ready to have that conversation yet...

I'm not here to push the narrative that Jayden Daniels is having a better season than Joe Burrow had in 2019, because Burrow did play a harder strength of schedule than Daniels during the regular season, but if you look at the numbers Joe Burrow put up in the 12-game regular season compared to what Jayden Daniels is on pace for, you can make an argument that Daniels is having a better statistical season than the guy who won the Heisman vote by nearly 2,000 points.

Joe Burrow (2019) vs Jayden Daniels (2023)
12 game regular season stats
PlayerJoe BurrowJayden Daniels

Passing yards

4,366

3,797

Rushing yards

248

1,102

Total yards

4,614

4,809

Total TD's

47

46

In my opinion, Bo Nix is the only one who should even be in consideration behind Jayden Daniels, but he still has 826 less yards and four less touchdowns than Daniels does (and has played much, much worse defenses all season).

Like Brian Kelly said, Jayden Daniels should be the Heisman, and if he's not, the whole thing is a popularity contest. Unless Daniels has a complete meltdown to end the season, if anyone else wins the award, it should completely invalidate the award moving forward because there isn't a player in the country that is on the same level as Daniels right now.